Originally posted as a comment about The Day After.
There’s an interesting thread started on Feb 8 in the One Million Strong for Barack group on Facebook, How many Political Cards Hillary has played and whats more to come? I went back and looked at it today seeing how accurate it was; here was my summary:
This is a really interesting thread to read a month later. Of the Clinton kitchen sink that got her a tie for March 4, Sandeep flagged the “representing Obama as Muslim” card, others brought up “experience” and “ready to lead on day 1”, and the “victim card” (which thanks to SNL turned the press into a poodle for a few days)
We missed a few:
– the “inaccurate leaks from conservative foreign governments” card [NAFTA-gate]
– the Rush Limbaugh card [Republican crossover voters]
– the “help from McCain” card [his timely attacks on exactly the same issue Clinton was focusing on]I don’t think anybody else predicted these either, so on the whole, I bet the analysis in this thread was as good as just about any other analyses out there — in the press or blogosphere.
Very impressive!
In other words, the 22 group members who posted in the thread seem to have predicted things at least as well as the pundits out there — probably better than most.
It’s great example of the role of cognitive diversity, which underlies wisdom of crowds effect: diverse groups doing a better job than experts. Scott Page’s work provides a good framework for understanding of the vital role that diversity plays in a situation like this, and his recent book The Difference is a very readable discussion; Adam has a good short summary on Emergent Chaos.
The Obama campaign is benefiting hugely from its diversity and resulting wisdom of crowds; if you look at its supporters, you see rainbows in one dimension after another: race, age (including those too young to vote), religion, class, language, gender, geography (including internationally) …. It’s a huge advantage over the Clinton campaign and an even bigger one over McCain. This implies that the Obama campaign in generally will do better on their predictions and their performance. Sure enough, the February spreadsheet is an extraordinarily accurate “we’ll do at least this well” prediction, and the campaign has consistently outperformed.
Have any of the analysts, reporters, or bloggers reporting the election picked up on this yet?
And for those who wonder why I’m so enthusiastic about the One Million Strong group on Facebook: it’s the most diverse group of its size of Obama supporters working together that I know of. True, it’s online-only, so people without access to technology aren’t involved; and I’ve seen relatively few over-50s. But geography, race, language, gender, religion (Muslims, Jews, Christians including evangelicals and pro-lifers for Obama, Buddhists, secularists), field and major …
It’s pretty astonishing — and incredibly exciting to be a part of it!
Update, 3/24: Tim Leberecht’s excellent A New (Obama) Brand of Politics: Yes, We Can…Remix America! touches on some of these issues from a branding perspective.
Update, 3/27: presenting Matt Adler, now delegate to the Democratic National Connection from the 3rd Congressional District of Missouri — with the help of Facebookers. Also, details on the One Million Strong for Barack group’s contribution to getting a story covered on Wired, CSPAN, and the Nation. About that “consistently outperforming …”
jon | 09-Mar-08 at 9:34 am | Permalink
Coincidentally enough, somebody posted on Facebook about Elizabeth Bryant’s Europe’s minority politicos see hope in Obama at the same time I was posting this.
jon | 10-Mar-08 at 9:48 am | Permalink
In the tribe discussion, somebody commented “how any of this relates to the obama campaign is beyond me.” here was my reply:
This is an excellent example of wisdom-of-crowds effects. I had also gotten feedback from a couple of others, mostly variants of “yeah, well said” … none of them had questioned this. The difference: they were all pro-Obama activists, and so familiar with the diversity of the Obama campaign as well as the successes that have come from it. The questioner here comes from a different perspective — exactly the kind of thing Scott Page talks about in terms of “cognitive toolbox”.
jon | 13-Mar-08 at 2:09 pm | Permalink
Somebody in the One Million Strong group just posted a link to May 2007 Will the 2008 USA election be won on Facebook? by Linnie Rawlinson for CNN, datelined London. Fascinating reading, including this:
The article also notes challenges, including that “the Internet has its own style of writing and its own social mores” Indeed — hi, trolls! A remarkably good job by Linnie, looking even better almost a year later.
This also means that the Facebook group has been a large diverse community talking and working together for quite a while — getting steadily better at it. So the wisdom-of-crowds effects tend to increase in value. The debunking, convincing, get-out-the-vote, phonebanking, and “know your rights” work is getting more and more efficient; information flow is getting smoother and smoother. On top of that, we were involved in the Double Bubble Trouble voting rights activism, and thanks to Scott Isaacs may well have an even bigger role exposing the election falsification in Ohio.
So of course it’s not like it’s the only place the election is being won … but it’s a major contributor, and an advantage for Obama over both Clinton and McCain that keeps growing over time. Current stats:
One Million Strong for Barack: 497,606 members, 20,943 discussion topics
Hillary Clinton for President – One Million STRONG: 24,405 members; 2170 topics
John McCain for President: 12,894 members, 157 topics
And not to beat things into the ground, but the most recent topics in John McCain for President (“Americans Love War”, “Lieberman Says McCain Ready 24/7 To Be Commander-In-Chief) are a really good example of how groupthink can set in and destroy wisdom of crowds effects when you have a lack of diversity.
jon | 13-Mar-08 at 10:51 pm | Permalink
Nikki Schwab’s Young Voters Could Put Obama or Clinton in the White House has some very good stuff.
Props to Nikki for highlighting Facebook’s role:
She doesn’t mention the much larger, and equally unofficial, One Million Strong for Barack, and so underestimates the influence of Facebook and of grassroots activism — and Obama’s advantage. My initial reaction is that on the whole the article appears to me to overstate Clinton’s and McCain’s appeal to younger voters, thinking both of the exit polling numbers and the relative size of the Facebook groups above is another indication. The letters posted on McCain’s 23-year-old daughter Meghan’s very-well-done McCainBlogette are full of deserved praise and enthusiasm, but the crowd seems to skew older (“color this 50-year-old Republican impressed”). Then again the guy from the college Republicans seems to think otherwise; he may well know better than me. We shall see.
Good article, and it’s especially interesting to read this article in conjunction with Linnie Rawlinson’s year-old article from London above and Amy Schatz’ BO, U R So Gr8 from the Wall Street Journal … I wonder what paths this has taken through the blogosphere in the interim. The Democratic Strategist has had several thoughtful pieces about this, and Ari Melber had something about Obama’s MySpace delegates in the Nation, but there hasn’t been much. Overall, though, I think the “mainstream media” is actually doing better than the blogosphere on covering the social network aspects of this US Election.
Here’s a picture from McCainBlogette, presumably taken by Meghan or one of the other Blogettes, that I particularly liked: a Republican fund-raiser for her Dad at the Plaza in New York that illustrates some of the challenges the McCain campaign faces finding sufficient diversity to get wisdom-of-crowds effects.
jon | 16-Mar-08 at 8:51 am | Permalink
In Farhad Manjoo’s Does “Obama Girl” help Obama? interview in Salon’s Machinist *”), Clay Shirky discusses Exhibit A in how the Web changes everything, uses Barack Obama’s presidential run.
A couple of especially-relevant excerpts:
and
Good examples of situations where diversity’s especially helpful. The different interests and styles of people producing the videos (and other content) mean that whether your tastes run to Olbermann or will.i.am or ObamaGirl or whatever, there’s likely to be something that presents Obama’s message to you in a way you’re more likely to be receptive. And for responses to swiftboating, the diverse crowd’s access to a wide variety of different information sources helps pin down the truthiness of the allegations — and their ability to reach out via blogs, social networks, and their contacts in many different communities can help put pressure on the media to cover the story accurately.
jon | 18-Mar-08 at 9:45 am | Permalink
The Obama “More perfect union” speech on Facebook: people in general thought it rocked, and gave very concrete reasons why. Great discussion, too. [Has any expert or analyst — or mainstream media — mentioned the importance of Obama’s bi-racial background and multi-racial outlook yet? It’s already spawned followup threads on Facebook …] The my reaction thread has more.
By contrast, the Hillary Clinton group predicted the “race card” would be played, and sees it as Worst. Speech. Ever.. Commenters on the National Review Online’s The Corner are even more disparaging, with some notable exceptions; Matthew Yglesias summarizes in Through the looking glass.
Two questions:
1. what is the relative diversity of these groups in the generational, racial, and class dimensions?
2. looking back from six months, a year, ten years from now … which assessments are likely to prove more accurate?
jon | 19-Mar-08 at 7:21 pm | Permalink
Reflecting more on the previous comment …
One of the other things this compare-and-contrast illustrates is that the combination of opinions of the three “crowds” has insights that you don’t get from any one. For example, none of us watching in the Obama group picked up that a lot of people would see Obama’s comments as in some way disrespectful to his grandmother or to Ferraro.
Sometimes the groups share a lack of diversity. I don’t think any of these groups anticipated the effect that Obama’s speech would have on a lot of older Americans, as described for example in jhpdb’s The Speech and my Mom the White Grandma and JulieUnplugged’s The Obama speech effect on my White Republican Mother on Kos. In retrospect this isn’t surprising; relatively few 60+-year-olds are hanging out in any of these forums. I wonder if the discussion group on Eons is more likely to have noticed this?
One of the things that’s easy to do online is get little tastes of other perspectives to keep you balanced. I occasionally post questions in Ron Paul discussion groups: it’s interesting to hear what people there think about questions like speakers for Computers, Freedom, and Privacy (Bob Barr — who spoke several years ago, and was great, and yeah, maybe we should invite him back) and “Will Ron Paul Win Pennsylvania?”. And a glimpse at sites like NRO from time to time makes me appreciate it even more when somebody like Charles Murray makes an excellent post.* Meghan McCain’s got interesting things to say( in her GQ blog interview, for example) that I haven’t seen elsewhere** … and so on.
It’s interesting to hear what other crowds are saying too.
* update, March 24: another excellent post from Murray on the Obama speech, made all the more credible by his flat-out statement that “I can’t vote for him.” Another interesting discussion on Matthew Yglesias’ blog.
** March 24: Amanda Marcotte has some interesting thoughts on Meghan in The exception who proves the rule on Pandagon
** March 27: Libby Copeland’s Fortunate Daughter in the Washington Post also looks at Meghan McCain; while it makes some very good points, I found the overall tone rather condescending and disrespectful. How come Libby and her editors make such a point of including “like” and “you know” in so many of Meghan’s and the other blogettes quotes? Public figures say things like this all the time; the convention is to edit them out. Unless of course it’s a woman in her 20s who “strokes the blond ponytail that lies over her shoulder like a mink stole” and emits “joyful giggles”, in which case the rules are apparently different. Disappointing.
jon | 24-Mar-08 at 8:13 am | Permalink
Sarah Lai Stirland’s Inside Obama’s Surging Net-Roots Campaign on Wired discusses the campaign’s use of social networks, focusing on my.barackobama.com and related sites like the Texas precincts captains tool.
Tim Dickinson’s The Machinery of Hope in Rolling Stone covers some similar ground, with an emphasis on the combination of online and off and laudatory quotes from experienced political consultants. I found this perspective from Cuauhtémoc “Temo” Figueroa, organizer of the “Camp Obama” training sessions, particularly interesting:
I’ve been hanging out on Facebook much more than MyBO: there are only so many hours in a day! For me, it’s much more interesting to integrate the activism with the rest of my life and see how to repurpose existing technology. Smaller activist groups or political campaigns won’t be able to custom-build their own applications, although presumably over time the functionality in MyBO will become available more broadly via services like CivicSpace. Also, it’s often much more effective to meet people where they already are; Facebook and MySpace and Ning (etc.) are the existing communities.
From the Obama campaign’s perspective, the “crowd” is the network-of-networks — once again, diversity at the meta-level. Once again, none of the coverage addresses this — or, for that matter, any other aspect of diversity. Oh well.
jon | 24-Mar-08 at 8:22 am | Permalink
From November 2007, Eszter Hargittai’s Whose Space? Differences Among Users and Non-Users of Social Network Sites asks an important question:
From the Chronicle of Higher Education’s summary:
It’s not surprising that different communities tend to prefer one site or another. (A historic example: in the instant messaging area, a few years ago Yahoo! introduced ethnically diverse avatars, and over the course of a year or so there was noticeable movement in the black community from AIM to Yahoo!) This is yet another example of how multiple networks provide more diversity than a single network.
Much more troubling is the potential contribution to digital inequality: how to include the people who aren’t part of any online crowd?
jon | 24-Mar-08 at 11:07 am | Permalink
Tim Leberecht’s excellent A New (Obama) Brand of Politics: Yes, We Can…Remix America! touches on some of these issues from a branding perspective:
Aggregated “wisdom” is only one form of wisdom of the crowds; I’m using it here in the more general sense of “collective intelligence” … in other words, I think we’re in violent agreement.
jon | 27-Mar-08 at 8:32 am | Permalink
Dillon Orbon posted a link to Brian Stelter’s New York Times business section article Finding Political News Online, the Young Pass It On in the One Million Strong group on Facebook, which perfectly illustrates the author’s point:
Indeed. (Thanks, Dillon!)
Towards the end, the article notes
Good point, and it would have been nice to hear more about this. Given all the discussion of the gaps in coverage and biases and sexism of the mainstream media’s “context and analysis”, As Hali Cespedes-Chorin said on the Facebook thread, maybe it’s because we’ve realized that many “seasoned journalists” have – at best – been lying down on the job for, say, the last decade or more. Seems to me like a good example of representation distance. Since it’s in the business section, it might be interesting to explore what implications this has for the various media companies, Google, and Facebook.
The article also doesn’t mention discussion groups’ very important role of ultra-rapid sharing of information — people in the One Million Strong group often post links to broadcasts-in-progress quickly enough that we can join in and watch things as they’re happening. And since the crowd as a whole monitors sooo many diverse information sources (small subset here), far more than any one person could, it’s tremendously efficient. I wonder if the NY Times doesn’t understand this, or simply doesn’t think it’s important?
There’s plenty of other room for improvement as well. Most of the discussion is at a fairly high-level and the statistics are fairly basic summaries. Does it really matter how many “friends” the candidates have on Facebook and MySpace? And the discussion of statistics about videos don’t match Ari Melber’s Obama’s YouTube speech tops television ratings or Tony Thielen’s look at iLike’s role in spreading the will.i.am video last month here on Liminal States.
Still, as the excerpts I highlighted show, Brian puts his finger on a couple of important points. It’s nice to see America’s newspaper of record recognize that’s something happening here, even if what it is ain’t exactly clear. Hopefully they’ll build on this and look at it more deeply.
jon | 27-Mar-08 at 9:35 am | Permalink
I happened to be looking at Yahoo! Answers, and noticed that the Democratic candidates had asked questions there last year.
Hillary Clinton’s How can we as a country promote alternative energy, use less foreign oil and reduce global warming? got 2156 answers; the one voted “best”, with 6 of the 24 votes, emphasized conservation, and the one with the most “thumbs up” (323) talked about nuclear power.
Barack Obama’s How can we engage more people in the democratic process? had 17416 (!) responses. Rather than voting, the asker [presumably Barack or a staff member] chose the best response, which focused on teenagers, the schools, and community. That and several others had over 1000 thumbs up.
Yahoo! Answers has a fairly diverse population, and both of these groups are large enough to get wisdom-of-crowds effects. If you look at the top 2-3% of responses in each one, it’s a pretty good collection of well-articulated different views, with lots of value. Impressive. And as elsewhere, the Obama campaign has a significant advantage in participation; as a result, there are (at least so it seems to me) more good responses for them to take advantage of — and more people who are now a little more deeply engaged with the campaign.
A couple of things jump out in addition to the factor-of-five difference in participation. First of all, the question Obama asked is something that more people on Yahoo! Answers are likely to be able to feel comfortable providing input on. And secondly, unlike YouTube, Facebook, digg, and the Huffington Post, Yahoo! Answers doesn’t seem to have caught on as a significant social network being used by the campaigns.
jon | 27-Mar-08 at 9:39 pm | Permalink
A very concrete example of the kinds of value from One Million Strong for Barack and other Facebook groups: Matt Adler, a 22-year-old student at Washington University in Missouri, posted there earlier this week asking for support in his bid to become a delegate to help give younger voters a voice. He set up a group, and made his case, starting with
I joined, and sent him some potentially-helpful suggestions (tapping the folks mentioned in the Obama’s MySpace Delegates article, for example). 260 others joined, a lot of whom were local and were able to do a lot more.
Tonight we got this message from Matt:
How cool is that?
jon | 27-Mar-08 at 9:45 pm | Permalink
There’s another impressive example of the One Million Strong group’s impact in the Election falsification in Ohio thread. Here’s a summary; see that thread for more context and links.
jon | 30-Mar-08 at 3:38 pm | Permalink
Frank Rich’s op-ed piece Hillary’s St. Patrick’s Day Massacre touches on the social network aspects of the campaign:
Here’s a situation where I bet it’s the lack of diversity in the age and cultural dimensions that accentuate the problem. The core of the Clinton campaign doesn’t appear to have involved anybody who’s spent a lot of time living in an online social network world, so it’s not surprising that they’re thinking in such “old-school” ways.
jon | 31-Mar-08 at 11:07 am | Permalink
Eve Fairbanks’ Wiki Woman: The battle to define Hillary online, in The New Republic, looks at people who maintain the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama Wikipedia pages.
jon | 09-May-08 at 2:01 pm | Permalink
i inadvertently managed to delete some comments here highlighting the breadth of the responses to the ABC debate on their site, and contrasting with the much more limited view of the pundits and media. i think there may also have been some references to a few other good articles. drat. i hate it when i do that.
jon | 09-May-08 at 2:06 pm | Permalink
A thread from the One Million Strong group: We Have More Discussion Threads In This Group Than There Are Supporters In Hillary’s Group.
Current totals:
Obama group: 526,695 members; 27,148 topics
Clinton grop: 26,548 members; 4,966 topics
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[…] Indeed/pwn2own/RSA sequence on security and static analysis, and the Gender, race, age, and power/Cognitive diversity in the 2008 US election pair focused on the nexus of social computing, oppression theory, intersectionality, and diversity. […]
jon | 22-Jun-08 at 2:05 pm | Permalink
Darlene Jones-Owens started up a thread asking people’s age. Results so far, grouped by the decade in which people are born:
1940s – 3
1950s – 2
1960s – 10
1970s- 3
1980s- 49
1990s- 7
Total = 74
The gap in the “70s” cohort (29-39) is kind of weird … you’d expect it to be somewhere between the 80s and 60s. as it is, almost 80% of the people there are 28-and-under, aka “Facebook generation”. Still, the healthy sprinkling of old codgers like me is a great example of diversity in action.
jon | 25-Jun-08 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
Another important dimension of diversity: geography. If you stop to think about it, the One Million Strong group is likely to be as diverse in this dimension than any other group its size. Here’s an attempt to leverage that advantage. Here’s what I posted (sans formatting alas) on Facebook:
ACTIVISM: “Swing State Newspaper Project”
Adam Terando on OpenLeft has kicked off a very cool grassroots pro-Obama activism campaign, and could really use help from any One Million Strong for Barack members who live in any of 20 swing states: Pennsylvania, the Carolinas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, …
Here’s Adam’s original insight:
Indeed. And he also had an idea about how to counter this:
More about the plan at http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6518
The most effective comments are courteous, polite, and informative [duh] — and come from local residents: subscribers (or potential subscribers!) and online readers the paper’s local advertisers want to target. So for this to work best, we’d want a large and geographically diverse group to help.
Gee, I said to myself, do I know a group of people like that?
Hey! I do!
Adam’s been posting daily updates in a thread on OpenLeft: five online newspaper articles related to the campaign where comments and/or followups would be particularly helpful. On days when you’ve got a few moments, please check it out and see if there’s a conversation you can add to — or a reporter you want to tip your hat to.
And if it’s out-of-state for you, but you know somebody there who might help, send it along!
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6520
PS: And if you’ve got feedback on the idea (how to improve it, ways to involve people who aren’t in swing states, etc. etc.), please, don’t be shy.
Yeah, like I really needed to say that.
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[…] collaboratively on the wiki and message board and email and IM, getting input from over 20 people. Cognitive diversity in action: we had lawyers, journalists, techies, ad execs, marketing people, a professional comedian, and […]
Liminal states » Gender, race, age, and power in online discussions, chapter n +1 (DRAFT) | 02-Aug-08 at 12:29 pm | Permalink
[…] is an excellent look at the value of cognitive diversity in prediction and problem-solving; my Cognitive diversity in the 2008 US election is an early attempt to relates this to online […]
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[…] There are over 700,000 people in the One Million Strong group Facebook alone, and after a lot of success in the primary, we’re getting steadily more ambitious: an online convention, an upcoming moneybomb, targeted […]
Liminal states » Is netroots non-diversity a myth? | 22-Sep-08 at 9:35 am | Permalink
[…] is an excellent look at the value of cognitive diversity in prediction and problem-solving; my Cognitive diversity in the 2008 US election is an early attempt to relates this to online […]
Liminal states » DRAFT: One Million Strong for Barack Facebook group: an October moneybomb to scare McCain | 04-Oct-08 at 10:38 am | Permalink
[…] progressive blogosphere has almost completely ignored Obama activism on Facebook so far (although the mainstream media has paid some attention) … at some point they’ll wake up, and it might as well be now. So if you know any […]
Liminal states » Live from Madison this Sunday: social network activism and the Voter Suppression Wiki | 23-Oct-08 at 9:44 pm | Permalink
[…] social network activism in general, looking at some of the experiences I discuss in Reflections and Cognitive diversity and the US 2008 Election. With the election right around the corner, though, we’ll probably be devoting the bulk of […]
CuhBipsprus | 17-Jan-11 at 1:56 pm | Permalink
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Politicians at the Gates by Craig Montuori - Quora | 06-Mar-11 at 4:35 pm | Permalink
[…] […]
Quora (product): How might Quora be used for political advocacy? - Quora | 26-Mar-11 at 10:54 am | Permalink
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Jody Pistole | 08-Apr-11 at 12:55 pm | Permalink
I have on it a little different view
Liminal states :: Will Facebook “archive” the One Million Strong for Barack group? | 16-May-11 at 11:09 am | Permalink
[…] an “upgrade or die” policy for old-style groups, it’s a stressful time for One Million Strong for Barack. As the Erratic Synapse writes in Facebook Stands Poised to Take Our Group of Over 980,000 Obama […]